Noticias
28 Sep 2015

Dollar Benefits from Fed Speakers Supporting Rate Rise

The dollar benefited from a raft of more hawkish Fed speakers (downplayed potential impact from overseas developments). They reaffirmed that it would likely be appropriate to start hiking rates this year. Some less cautious than expected comments from ECB President Draghi benefitted the euro, while a more cautious outlook for UK rate hikes weighed on sterling.

US Employment figures

The key release is September non-farm payrolls. They are expected to show another 200k+ increase. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at an over 7 -year low of 5.1% in September, while further improvement in earnings is also anticipated. Overall, solid labour market data would be supportive of a rate hike and thus, they could provide some support to the dollar.

US second quarter GDP

Second quarter GDP figures for America were revised up to 3.7%. It seems that low productivity levels, slow wage growth and hesitance to spend by American businesses and individuals could be reverting back in the direction of growth. Read more

US Dollar

The US Dollar this morning buys €0.89435 and £0.65656.

Eurozone inflation

For the euro, given on-going speculation that the ECB could ease policy further, Eurozone HICP inflation (September) will garner plenty of attention. Inflation is forecast to slip back to 0%, reflecting the recent fall in commodity prices. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at a very elevated level. Such results could add some weight to policy easing speculation and thus the euro might struggle somewhat in the coming days.

Pro-Independence parties in Catalonia fall short

British farm payment

Expect greater volatility in the coming days as it nears the end of September. Each year the end of September marks an annual payment from the EU to British farmers which totalled 3.3 billion euro in 2013. As a result this will allow the EUR/GBP to dither somewhat, for instance this day last week the Euro bought £0.72165 whereas today it will buy £0.73412. Read more

The Euro will buy you $1.11825 this morning at 10:01 AM.

UK Skills gap problems

A skills shortage in Britain has naturally resulted in a reduction in productivity levels. Weak productivity has hurt Britain since the financial crisis which in turn will not help people increase their income.

Skill shortages in Britain worsened for a fourth consecutive year, and now rank among the most severe in Europe, according to the annual Global Skills Index from recruitment group Hays (HAYS.L) and consultancy Oxford Economics. Read more

Great British Pound

The GBP will buy $1.52227 which is beginning to rise after hitting $1.51821 on Friday. In Euro terms you can buy €1.36137.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar currently is defying analyst predictions that it will witness $0.68 USD by the end of the year. Currently the AUD/USD trades at around $0.70 - $0.703 for the past week. However over the next two weeks, Chinese PMI, US manufacturing and pay-roll data will take effect.

Quite possibly the most interesting development for Australia is the long-term structural developments Malcolm Turnball wishes to manage. This transition will see Australia switch from a commodities and farming centred economy to a balanced economy embracing technology. Read more

 

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